The Art of the Trade


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Recurrent Networks

For fifteen years following the war, 45, pieces were returned to France, mostly to Jewish owners. Today, almost every country in the world has restrictions and regulations on the export of cultural property. Fine art proves complicated for economists to analyze, mostly because trade in unique art is in large part trade between consumers — the "secondary market" — rather than the "primary market" trade between the producer artist and the consumer. It is more complicated for economists, then, to capture these transactions in their data.

Comparative advantage is also more difficult to pinpoint in the case of cultural goods. There is a certain degree of cultural nationalism of art, [8] making some nations reluctant to part with their cultural property. Additionally, relative advantage cannot simply be calculated by the marginal cost of producing a unit of art, since aesthetic value plays so heavily into its price.

Foreign Trade

Trade theory demonstrates how much and at what price countries trade goods if they have different endowments or different preferences. But this model is not very useful because of retentive nationalism: [9] a country that is relatively less endowed with art-producing resources will not stop producing simply because they can import art from abroad at cheaper prices.


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Traditional trade theory treats art as a homogenous, non-differentiated good, which is where it fails to reliably predict trade trends. Since each piece of art is different, and because each piece does not appear on the market very often, the determination of changes in market value prove difficult to determine. Economists use the hedonic regression HR estimation method to calculate prices in art. This is used to predict prices based on various attributes of the artwork such as its dimensions, the artist, and the subject matter attended to.

Protectionism is a nationalistic viewpoint that contends that a healthy cultural industry is necessary to assert national sovereignty and identity.

Smaller deals are raising concerns about the precedent Trump is setting by striking limited pacts.

America is the largest exporter of artwork in the world, and English speaking countries are especially vulnerable to American imports. Protectionism is less concerned with direct economic interest as it is with preserving cultural integrity. Australian economist David Throsby argues that investment in "cultural capital" may be necessary for the sustainability of a culture. Bator , who helped negotiate and draft the UNESCO convention on the International Trade of Art, argues that larger countries are responsible for the cultural interests of smaller ones.

He explains in The International Trade in Art that "art-rich countries should create tax and other financial and psychological incentives to persuade those with important antiquities and archaeological objects to keep them at home". Proponents of liberalization in international art markets stress that open markets contribute to efficient production and distribution of cultural products. Protection raises rather than lowers domestic prices, which detracts from consumer welfare.

The " commodification objection" is the reluctance to classify an important cultural good as a simple trade commodity, and is frequently cited by cultural protectionists. The issue of the illicit art trade also factors into the debate. Minideals are becoming something of a trend for Trump ahead of the election. In addition to India, he is expected to soon announce a limited trade agreement with Japan.

While smaller deals may prove easier to win than comprehensive agreements, they are raising concerns among some lawmakers and businesses about the precedent Trump is setting by striking limited pacts that could leave significant issues unresolved. The deals will secure some wins for U. The prime minister is also eager to win strong U.

trade deal: With India, Trump practices the art of the minideal - The Economic Times

The two sides have discussed the potential for a broader trade deal in recent months, but negotiators have decided that too many disagreements remain, at least for now. The U. For example, the Modi government is trying to rein in the power of U. India has a long-standing trade relationship with Iran and is chafing at the U. The United States, meanwhile, has been leaning hard on India to ban Huawei , the Chinese telecom giant, from supplying equipment for the next generation of wireless technology, known as 5G, over security concerns.

The Trump administration is also pressing to eliminate the U. Nisha Biswal, the president of the U.

Chamber of Commerce, said starting with a smaller deal makes sense because the countries have not agreed on much in the past when it comes to trade. Those deals include nearly every sector of the economy, and have rules on how countries manage their currencies, process trade and resolve trade disputes, among many other issues. Trump has eschewed multilateral deals like the TPP, which he pulled the United States out of when he became president. And his advisers want to avoid entering into big, sweeping deals that would typically require congressional approval. It is unclear if that deal will ever get approved.

But it has ruffled many in the business community who are fighting for broader interests. The impact estimates vary from While the framework of a deal could be reached quickly, both sides seem to be preparing for extended negotiations. GDP to a much smaller fraction over the following decade. From our recent conversations, the bad news is that both sides think they are winning. The U. There are no winners in an extended trade-war, but there are countries which may suffer less or temporarily benefit from the re-routing of trade, and the U.

Brazil and Argentina benefit from being allies both to the US and China, giving them leverage through their agriculture production and the ability to reduce the risk of a spike in food-inflation caused by tariffs or food shortages, like the recent swine fever in China. Mexico, as well, could benefit temporarily if trade conflicts in China result in greater demand from the US for Mexican goods.

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Europe, instead, is likely to be hit further, with the U. Last year, investors reacted to US-China policy tensions with a sharp selloff in global stocks, while long-term yields remained high as the Fed kept its hawkish rhetoric. Today, risk assets have held up better and remain above December lows: the key difference has been a global shift in central bank reaction functions and a decline in inflation. More central banks which sounded hawkish last year are changing tack.

Bond markets are now pricing nearly three Fed cuts by the end of the year. This does not mean risk assets have been immune to trade war risks. Financial markets are in the process of balancing negative trade news with more central bank liquidity. Analyzing the performance of Q1 credit and equity markets, we conclude that returns this year have been led by duration and low-beta, variables influenced by central bank liquidity. In credit, European triple-B and double-B bonds have outperformed lower rated bonds by a record.


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In our view, central bank policy will have to remain dovish for a long time in the U. These include the Eurozone but also Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden, previously deemed as safe havens from the crisis. Our estimates show the current environment remains one of kick-the-can economics , positive for rates, negative for equities and still positive for credit.

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We have been long duration since last year, and continue to receive rates : we see the most upside in Australia, an economy which is both still very dependent on China exports and capital inflows, and which has developed deep private debt overhangs. We also see flatter curves in Canada, New Zealand and Sweden. Emerging market rates remain particularly attractive, too. Given the relatively dovish background and the relatively contained EM FX pressures, the market will demand yields closer to inflation levels.

The implications for global equities are likely to be more volatility with a decline in corporate profits, which so far have held up remarkably well. We maintain a short position on U. For credit , the key question is whether the trade wars will escalate into a recession and a full-blown default cycle. What we have seen so far, instead, is a trickle-up in stressed situations: companies with existing issues have been getting worse.

The Art of the Trade The Art of the Trade
The Art of the Trade The Art of the Trade
The Art of the Trade The Art of the Trade
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